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11:15 a.m. ET: Why the market will “pop” in 2020
Veteran market watcher Jim Paulsen at The Leuthold Group believes that the economy’s backdrop — fiscal and monetary stimulus, a U.S.-China trade deal and rock-bottom interest rates, among other things — bode well for the stock market:
Is a “pop in profits” the next shoe to drop on Wall Street? Profits do not need to surge, but they do need to soon show some signs of revival. Despite relatively flat earnings results this year, the stock market has been swayed by significantly lower valuations from the late-2018 stock market collapse, considerably lower and persistently declining interest rates, and by chronically fearful investor sentiment. These favorable forces are no longer as prevalent, so for the stock market to continue advancing in 2020, it needs some good old-fashioned earnings growth!
...While corrections and “gut checks” for investors should be expected during 2020, even a modest acceleration in U.S. profits would likely be enough for a further advance in the stock market. The last time profit growth was rising, the 10-year bond yield was about 3.25% and the annual rate of consumer price inflation was 3%. An improvement in earnings growth during 2020 would likely occur when most portfolios are still underweighted “risk-on” investments, with a sub-2% 10-year Treasury yield, and from only a 2.1% inflation rate.
10:30 a.m. ET: Tesla extends gains after Chinese debt deal
Tesla’s stock (TSLA) has been on a tear lately, and on Monday it rallied by over 3% to a new intraday high. Those gains took the stock just above the $420 “funding secured” level that landed CEO Elon Musk in hot water last year with investors and regulators.
According to Bloomberg, the car maker is closing in on a $1.4 billion debt deal in China that will help it deliver locally-made Model 3s in the country.
Musk, who said he initially came up with the $420 as an allusion to weed, gave a nod to that reference in a joke on Twitter:
Whoa … the stock is so high lol
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 23, 2019
10 a.m. ET: New home sales rose in November
The Commerce Department said on Monday new home sales rebounded 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000 units last month. The gain was fueled by buying sprees in the Northeast and West regions. Yet October's figure was revised down to 710,000 units, from the previously reported 733,000 units.
10 a.m. ET: Jefferies: Why Amazon’s one-day delivery is a game-changer
In new research, Jefferies made a comprehensive case for why Amazon’s push for 1-day delivery would usher in a “more rapid transition away from brick and mortar retail.” In a survey, the research firm found that:
...U.S. Prime users [show] strong interest in one-day, along with the potential for a material increase in usage, to the extent Amazon is able to further the program to include the majority of its items. Specifically, 55% of U.S. Prime members expect to use Amazon more with one-day, on average ~30% more, if most items are included.
Amazon’s ramped-up spending on delivery infrastructure will be a drag on operating income in Q4, but Jefferies has an “Overweight” rating with a price target of $2,150. The stock changed hands around $1788 on Monday, up marginally on the day.
9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks rally on trade hopes; Boeing soars
Wall Street opened higher on Monday after setting fresh records last week, spurred by U.S. and China moving closer to finalizing an interim trade agreement. Meanwhile, embattled Boeing CEO Dennis A. Muilenburg resigned under pressure from the company, which is struggling to contain the fallout from the 737 MAX’s idling after 2 fatal crashes. Boeing’s stock, which is a Dow component, spiked over 2% on the news.
Here’s where markets began Monday’s session:
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S&P 500 (^GSPC): +0.13%, or 4.11 points
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Dow (^DJI): +0.37%, or 105.05 points
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Nasdaq (^IXIC): +0.21%, or 19.12 points
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10-year Treasury yield (^TNX): +1.1 bps to 1.919%
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Gold (GC=F): -0.31% to $1,485.90 per ounce
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Crude (CL=F): -0.31 to $60.25
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